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FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Few storms with this mornings front, warm and muggy into mid-week

Published: Oct. 11, 2021 at 3:37 AM CDT|Updated: Oct. 11, 2021 at 12:26 PM CDT
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Rain possible this morning with sunshine for the afternoon
Rain possible this morning with sunshine for the afternoon(KPLC)

Lake Charles, LA (KPLC) - The first of two cold fronts arrives this morning bringing scattered showers and storms throughout the morning hours before sunshine makes a return for the second half of our day. While we won’t get a great deal of relief from the warm afternoons with this front a stronger front looks likely heading late Friday and into Saturday bringing cooler and drier weather into the area.

Some heavy downpours possible through the morning
Some heavy downpours possible through the morning(KPLC)

Stepping out the door this morning it’s a breezy one as winds remain 10-15 mph out of the south ahead of the line of showers and storms and once the line passes winds will turn more westerly through the afternoon, but that will only last a short period of time. Temperatures are off to a mild start as well with many areas sitting in the lower to middle 70′s and we won’t see much of a cool down through the afternoon either as the front begins to stall just to our north. Sunshine returns for the second half of our day with a mixture of clouds but expect our highs to reach the middle 80′s for many locations. While rain chances diminish our humidity will continue to stick around as the front drapes itself across the area before moving back to the north for our Tuesday.

Tracking two cold fronts on the way bringing some showers and storms
Tracking two cold fronts on the way bringing some showers and storms(KPLC)

Most model guidance keeps us on the drier side for Tuesday as the front will lift northward, but it will be key to as how far the front pushes south today as showers will line the front to the north as it lifts to the north. A few showers and storms can’t be ruled out for the northern sections of the area as the front pushes away but much like for our Monday sunshine will return during the afternoon. Highs stay steady throughout the middle of the week with afternoons in the middle to upper 80′s with our next front slowly pushing eastward to the area. The mugginess will continue thanks to the southerly winds we have but rain chances will remain on the lower side of things at least through Wednesday before changes arrive starting Thursday. Moving into Thursday a few showers and storms will be possible but they will be far and few between with chances remaining very isolated in nature with the front remaining far enough away.

A second front arrives bringing changes to the area
A second front arrives bringing changes to the area(KPLC)

If you are hoping for some cooler weather then there is good news as a second front arrives Friday and will bring bigger changes to Southwest Louisiana by the weekend and into next week. We will have to deal with isolated to scattered storms once again for Friday, but by the weekend drier weather moves in with much lower humidity. Models are in good agreement that a change in the pattern will follow the front allowing highs to be back into the lower 80′s with overnights back into the lower 60′s with the potential for it to be a little cooler. That’s something we will watch and monitor throughout the week but positive news in the sense for a taste of fall to return. As for the tropics there are three areas to monitor over the coming days with one off the East Coast of North Carolina that has a near 0% percent chance of forming, another in the Eastern Caribbean that will move to the north and has a 20% chance of developing and lastly one in the Central Atlantic moving north and west with a 30% chance. Neither of these pose a threat to the Gulf or Southwest Louisiana, which is welcome news. For now let’s focus on the two fronts ahead and keep the rain gear handy this morning with a few scattered storms.

Watching three areas in the tropics, none pose a threat to SWLA
Watching three areas in the tropics, none pose a threat to SWLA(KPLC)

Meteorologist Jacob Durham

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