First Alert Forecast: Warm with foggy nights until a strong cold front arrives...
LAKE CHARLES, La. (KPLC) - The forecast over the next 10 days is filled with way more uncertainty than normal; and it revolves around the weekend and whether or not we see winter precipitation, read the rest of the forecast for details on that. However, the forecast over the next few days is fairly easy and in a word it will be warm!
Tonight will be warm and muggy, at least by February standards, with lows by Tuesday morning ranging from the low 50s north of I-10 to the upper 50s at the coast. Fog will likely be a major problem overnight with visibility down to near zero beginning early Monday night and continuing well after sunrise Tuesday. Give yourself plenty of time to get to work or school, and use extra caution on the roads.
Tuesday will be warm with highs topping out the mid 70s under mostly cloudy skies. Rain does not look very likely, though a rouge shower cannot be 100% ruled out. We will likely see fog again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday as a cold front approaches Southwest Louisiana, it will move through overnight into Thursday. The chance of rain is 40% for Wednesday and 80% for Thursday. Severe weather does not look likely at this time, and rainfall should not be too excessive to cause problems. Temperatures will remain warm until the front arrives with highs in the 70s Wednesday, but it will be about 15 to 20 degrees cooler Thursday.
Uncertainty grows exponentially Friday through at least Monday, and this part of the forecast could change drastically with time. For now I am giving you what I expect based on the latest model data and my gut feeling on the situation.
Friday will be a cool day for sure with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s. We may see a few showers Friday, but they will likely be limited. Saturday and Sunday will be cloudy with arctic air building in under the clouds, but this cold air will be very shallow. Meaning if we have precipitation it would be more likely to be freezing rain or sleet than snow. Though even that will depend on whether or not the precipitation occurs while it is cold enough, and if it is cold enough for anything other than rain.
Here’s the bottom-line on the uncertainty, the 2 computer models that forecast that far out in time are showing wildly different forecasts. I do believe we will get the colder temperatures to arrive, but I am far less certain that precipitation will occur. So for now we wait and see if the models will come to an agreement, later this week the short-term models will begin to weigh in on the forecast too. But do know that most weather apps, other than the KPLC First Alert Weather App, rely solely on computer model data and those may be showing snow for the weekend. But our app is not showing that because of the uncertainty I outlined above. History says this time of the year is the coldest, so it makes sense that cold air would arrive. Stay tuned, and try to remember that social media is filled with people that post model data with no context, we do NOT do that here at KPLC.
Chief Meteorologist Wade Hampton
Copyright 2021 KPLC. All rights reserved.