FIRST ALERT FORECAST: Hotter days with less rain around until the weekend; tropics stay active

FIRST ALERT FORECAST: KPLC 7News at Noon - 12 p.m. - July 29, 2020
Wednesday rain chances trend lower
Wednesday rain chances trend lower (Source: KPLC)

LAKE CHARLES, La. (KPLC) - The end of our several consecutive stormy days begins today as models have trended drastically drier in the last couple of updates overnight. That said, I won’t rule out a few afternoon showers and storms, but the duration and coverage today will be much less than previous days. I’ve lowered our rain chances to 40% which means highs this afternoon make a run at 90 degrees with heat index values above 100.

Wednesday Forecast
Wednesday Forecast (Source: KPLC)

The focus for our daily downpours was a trough of low pressure and deep tropical moisture, both of which look to have relaxed a bit today as the trough lifts north, taking the focus for higher rain chances with it, over parts of northern Louisiana and into the Ark-La-Tex. We’ll see fewer storms today and even less rain for Thursday and Friday as a result. Highs back in the 90s the next couple of days will send heat index readings back up to between 100 and 105.

By the weekend, a weak front will stall out to our north and send some storm energy back our way, with some rumblings of thunderstorms expected to return by Saturday afternoon and again on Sunday. Neither days this weekend look like total washouts, but be prepared for storms to return if you have any outdoor plans. Fewer storms look to return by early next week as a hotter and drier pattern trends into much of next week with highs in the 90s.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (Source: KPLC)

We’re still keeping a close eye on the tropics with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine having moved past the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean, expected to strengthen to Tropical Storm Isaias later today or tomorrow. The long-range track and intensity forecast is made with low confidence as we’ve yet to see a well-defined center of circulation, so models will struggle on how to plot, track and forecast this system. Until that happens, expect big changes on the way to the projected path, which does not necessary leave the Gulf of Mexico out of the woods.

It’s still too early in the game to know what impacts this system will bring to the U.S. as we’ll need to watch to see how/if it actually develops and maintains itself on it trek through the mountains and rocky terrain of some of the islands in the Caribbean which have been known to totally shred tropical systems completely apart, and that is still certainly possible with this one later this week.

First Alert Meteorologist Ben Terry

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