First Alert Forecast: Rain chances increase as Gulf moisture surges into Southeast Texas

KPLC First Alert Forecast Nightcast: Sunday, September 15, 2019

LAKE CHARLES, La. (KPLC) - The heat continues this afternoon as temperatures top out in the mid 90s. We’re feeling like the upper 90s to low triple digits closer to the coast. That best chance for rain remains coastal as the area of storms I was tracking to move across the area has stayed farther south. We could still see one or two showers or storms later this evening. Any showers or storms that develop will help to cool us down quickly. Otherwise most of us will remain dry and hot until sunset at which time we’ll see temperatures starting to fall. They’ll drop into the mid 70s overnight.

We’ll start off our week as per usual warm and humid on Monday. Temperatures will still heat up quite a bit during the day as that rain chance holds off until the evening hours. So the heat will be our main focus through the afternoon as we see temperatures reach the mid 90s during the afternoon and we’ll see a heat index near the triple digits once again. That rain chance increases during the evening as we see that disorganized mass of storms get closer to the coast. These showers and storms will start off coastal and gradually spread inland as the area of storms moves into Texas. This will help to cool of temperatures faster as we head closer to sunset. We’ll see cloud cover sticking around as temperatures stay in the mid 70s overnight.

Tuesday we could see rain chances spread more evenly through the day depending on overnight development of showers and storms. The rain chances remains at 30%, but could increase depending on the movement of this area of storms. Right now movement stays more westerly than northerly keeping the heaviest of rainfall into Texas. Be sure to keep that umbrella handy during the day and track those showers and storms using our app! These are still going to be hit or miss so those not seeing rain will get hot during the afternoon.

Wednesday this area of storms moves far enough into Texas that we’ll see rain chances gradually decrease during the day, but we’ll have enough instability in our atmosphere to still see some afternoon showers and storms. These will be hit or miss once again meaning those who don’t see rain will be dealing with the heat.

Thursday we see a drop in rain chances down to a 20% chance. The heat will be a bit higher than the last few days reaching back into the mid 90s. Use caution in the heat. That rain chance is back up to a 30% chance on Friday, but the weekend is looking good at this time!

Out in the tropics we are still monitoring Tropical Storm Humberto as it moves north away from the Bahamas. This storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before impacting Bermuda later this week. The US is no longer in the cone of uncertainty for this storm as it curves out into the Atlantic. There are a few other areas worth noting. The one in the Gulf that is bringing increased rain chances for SWLA early this week has a low chance of developing before moving inland on Wednesday. The other area we are watching is in the main development region in the Atlantic and has a high chance of developing in the next 5 days. The current development area has this disorganized area of thunderstorms curving to the north before reaching the Lesser Antilles.

Copyright 2019 KPLC. All rights reserved.