First Alert Forecast: Typical summer day and we’re tracking the tropics

KPLC First Alert Forecast Sunrise: Thursday, September 12, 2019

LAKE CHARLES, La. (KPLC) - A typical summer time day in store for us. You guys know what that means. We’re going to start the day warm and humid before steadily warming up during the afternoon. Daytime heating will help us see more cloud cover and few isolated afternoon showers and storms. These will be most likely during the afternoon and few and far between. That mean the heat is going to be on as we see lots of sunshine helping us to warm up to near 94 this afternoon. Humidity is hanging around during the day giving us a heat index between 100-105. Use caution in the heat! That means drink plenty of water, take frequent breaks, and wear sunscreen this afternoon!

Friday I’m expecting a very similar day. Temperatures warm into the mid 90s during the afternoon with lots of sunshine. We’ll feel more like the triple digits through the majority of the day. Rain chances remain really low, but I can’t rule out a stray afternoon shower or storm. It’s our second week of high school football and its going to be another hot game! Be sure to use caution while outside including staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks.

There is still a decent amount of uncertainty with this forecast as models are not handling tropical wave invest 95 L well. Usually we see a decent amount of agreement, but not with 95 L. Depending on where the tropical wave tracks is going to determine if we see development. Honestly, determining if this system develops does not matter because impacts would remain the same. Wherever this systems moves those in the path will see heavy tropical downpours and gusty winds up to tropical storm force. The National Hurricane Center still has the eastern Gulf of Mexico high lighted as an area that could possibly see development into the weekend, but models still remain uncertain.

The real determining factor with the forecast is going to be where does this system track. We have two models that we use that track long term forecast. They are the Euro and the GFS. One has this system staying east of Florida and one puts in moving into New Orleans. One track we would see rain this weekend and the other we would not. The majority of the spaghetti plots keep this system to the east of us, but if it moves inland as close as SELA we would still see impacts in the way of increased rain chances late this weekend through the early part of next week. We’ll have to continue to monitor the forecast as confidence is low and uncertainty is high. Be sure to keep you weather app handy as we head into the weekend and watch for possible development.

Elsewhere in the tropics we are now only watching one system for possible development near the Cape Verde Islands moving to the west. Development of this system remains low through the next 5 days.

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