First Alert Forecast: Tracking 95 L into the weekend

KPLC First Alert Forecast Sunrise: Wednesday, September 11, 2019

LAKE CHARLES, La. (KPLC) - Starting off today warm and humid which is no surprise to anyone! We are seeing a few areas with some cloud cover which will gradually increase through the afternoon. Much like yesterday we’ll start to see some showers and storms popping around lunch and increasing in coverage into the afternoon hours. These begin to taper off closer to sunset as temperatures start to cool. Now, as these showers today will be hit or miss we’ll experience very hot conditions once again. The showers could lead to a brief cool down, but as the sun comes back out it’ll feel even hotter thanks to the added moisture in the air. Air temperatures top out in the low 90s, with a heat index back in the triple digits. That heat isn’t going anywhere anytime soon!

Rain chances decrease for Thursday with an isolated chance for a shower or storm during the afternoon. We’ll start off the day as we normally do with warm and humid conditions. During the afternoon is going to be that best chance for a shower or storm, but that chance remains very hit or miss. We’ll see hot conditions once again with a heat index in the triple digits through the afternoon.

Much of the same for Friday with hot temperatures continuing. We’ll top out in the low to mid 90s during the afternoon! We do have that chance for a hit or miss shower, but the chance remains isolated. That summer time pattern is hanging as we continue to see heat index values in the triple digits from noon until 6 daily. Be sure to use caution in the heat and take frequent breaks!

Saturday I think we remain mostly dry once again as the area of tropical moisture we are watching to cross into the Gulf isn’t moving that fast. Later into the evening and overnight we’ll see increased cloud cover as moisture surges north. This cloud cover won’t help much with the temperature as we’ll still reach the low to mid 90s during the afternoon and feel like the triple digits. Any out door activities look pretty good for Saturday, but Sunday is a different story.

Sunday’s forecast requires a little talk about the tropics before I dive into the forecast for the day. 95 L is located north of Hispaniola and continues to track west/northwest at this time. The National Hurricane Center has given it a 50% chance of development in the next 5 days! There are several factors working against development, but conditions are forecast to improve into the weekend as this storm moves into the eastern Gulf. Regardless of development, the NHC is reporting that there have been wind gusts in some of the outer bands producing tropical storm force wind gusts and heavy rain. There have been indications from the two most reliable models that this system will move inland to our east, but we could still get some of that heavy rain and possibly gusty winds Sunday. I have kept rain chances at 40% due to the uncertainty of where this area of disturbed weather will move over the next several days. We’ll continue to monitor into the weekend.

As we start next week we could see some lingering activity from this area of disturbed weather producing heavy rainfall and gusty winds. This should move out of our area pretty quickly, but cloud cover is expected to linger through the day keeping temperatures in the low 90s during the afternoon.

Elsewhere in the tropics we are no longer tracking post-tropical storm Gabrielle as it has dissipated. In addition to 95 L there are two other areas of development in the Main Development Region in the Atlantic. Both of these moved off of the African coast in the last few days and have low chances of development in the next 5 days.

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