LAKE CHARLES, La. (KPLC) - Dorian remains a rather weak tropical storm over an environment not conducive for rapid intensification as dry air and wind shear surround it, and conditions out ahead of it’s path this week also don’t leave much room for intensification. Regardless, interests in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti should be bracing for impacts over the next couple of days from a strong tropical storm.
Beyond mid-week, the forecast becomes very fuzzy and without a lot of confidence because it will be highly dependent on how the mountains of the two above mentioned islands disrupt the integrity of the storm as this terrain has been known as a tropical graveyard where systems come to die. That is very well possible with Dorian, especially if it stays on the weaker side of the forecast.
There is also a chance that Dorian moves through but not directly over the islands which would pose more of a concern as further strengthening over the Bahamas would be more likely and increase the likelihood of impacts to the U.S.
Before we get too concerned though, we must pay attention to the track Dorian takes over the next couple of days before we can get any idea of what could happen by this weekend as the storm (or its remnants) move closer to Florida’s east coast.
A track given by the National Hurricane Center would also bring attention to the fact it turns westward into Florida, potentially bringing its remnants into the Gulf of Mexico next week. That too is currently not supported by any model guidance and will again be largely dependent on the strength and mere existence of the storm maintaining itself before it even gets to Florida by this weekend.
At this time, there is no reason for concern here in Southwest Louisiana, but we will be watching things closer to the end of the week before making any confident predictions of where it heads beyond this week. The good news it that regardless of the eventual track, it poses no threat to the Gulf through the upcoming Labor Day weekend.
It is August and nearing the peak of hurricane season, so it is important to stay prepared throughout the remainder of hurricane season.
First Alert Meteorologist Ben Terry