An area of disturbed weather is currently located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea near the coast of Panama, this system is now known as Invest 90-L. This system is expected to drift northwestward over the next few day and then turn more northward by the weekend.
On this track it will likely pass near or portions of Costa Rica and Honduras later this week and then across the Yucatan peninsula by this weekend. It may become a tropical depression or storm later this week; although interaction with land may limit development, especially if it moves farther west over land for a longer period of time.
The next name on this list is Nate, and odds are this will become a tropical storm at some point over the next five days.
By Sunday it will be moving north across the Gulf of Mexico and some models show it developing into a tropical system, if it is not already one over the Caribbean. Most of the models show a track east of our area, but we could have a strengthening tropical system in the Gulf. And anytime there is a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico we must keep a close eye on it as any shifts in the track could mean drastically different impacts.
At this point the forecast is very likely to change with time as this system is not even a tropical system yet. The computer models tend to have a difficult time with developing systems like this. If it does become a named system late this week the models should come into a better agreement. At this point any place from Louisiana to Florida needs to keep a close eye on the forecast for this system. And it is difficult to say how strong of a system this could become. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development and the National Hurricane Center gives this a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.
There is no need to panic over this at this time, we have several days to monitor the forecast and the entire 7 Stormteam will be tracking it for you the entire time. This is a reminder though that we are still in hurricane season and hurricanes can happen in October! Please plan on checking our forecasts for updates frequently now through this weekend.
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