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SOURCE Frost & Sullivan
~New regulations to be enforced will restrict the industry growth
JAKARTA, Indonesia, Feb. 18, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Frost & Sullivan predicts Indonesia automotive 2013 to grow 7.5% reaching 1.2 million units.
Mr. Vivek Vaidya, Vice President, Automotive & Transportation Practice - Asia Pacific at Frost & Sullivan said that the growth will be supported by the stable growth of the domestic economy, the continuous investment flow, infrastructure development, and increasing automotive production capacity. However, the growth will likely restricted by numbers of regulations awaiting to be enforced.
The demand for the passenger vehicles segment in Indonesia is likely to increase 7.6 per cent year-on-year to 840,000 units in 2013 from 780,500 units in 2012.
According to Mr. Vaidya, growth would be driven by segments such as MPVs, SUVs, and compact medium-small cars. More models reflecting low cost and green concepts are expected to be introduced after clear official announcement of the Low Cost Green Car (LCGC) regulations. These models are not only confined small cars, but also hybrid, and possibly CNG-fueled vehicles.
"The Indonesia's growth projection also depends heavily on the official announcement of the Low Emission Carbon (LEC) - LCGC Program. This program will be the game changer for the country's automotive industry. It also will boost Indonesia's vehicle sales and export rate as the LCGC car will fill the gap between motorcycle and vehicle market due its affordable price range. The LEC – LCGC Program will completely resposition Indonesia in global automotive industry map," he explained.
The enforcement of LEC – LCGC Program will create an opportunity to catch up with Thailand as it will open new markets and enable Indonesia to target other developing countries by exporting the LCGC cars.
On the other hand, commercial vehicles segment is expected to see a growth of 7.3% per cent year-on-year to 360,000 units in 2013 due to continued growth in the Indonesia's economy.
"The strong demand from domestic economy activities such as retail and manufacturing sector will drive the market for small-medium pickup/truck while growth in construction sector and infrastructure development might impact higher sales for heavy truck," Vaidya added.
The 4X2 segment will remain the biggest segment as further market development shall be done for models launched in 2012 where most of them are in category 4X2.
However, Mr. Vaidya warned that the rollback of fuel subsidies, increase in minimum wages and enforcement of minimum down payment are likely to have negative impact on sales of new vehicles in 2013.
2012 Vehicle Sales Review
Mr. Vaidya said that in 2012, Indonesia hit the historic 1 million units mark in vehicle sales. However, Indonesia's main rival, Thailand, also reached the 1 million units in vehicle sales and taking back its number one position as ASEAN's largest automotive market in 2012.
The Indonesia's TIV is likely to end at 1.116 million units, growing 24.9 per cent year-on-year. The growth was due to positive domestic economic environment, postponement of subsidized fuel restriction and price increase, increasing buying power from the middle class segment and the introduction of new car models.
"2012 vehicle sales growth is experienced by all segments of passenger vehicles, with the highest volumes coming from 4x2 segment," Mr. Vaidya said.
He added that the sedan segment recovered from 2011 decline as auto part supplies from Thailand and Japan recovered, boosting sales of low and medium sedan category such as Vios, City, Civic and Camry.
Meanwhile, the 4x2 and 4x4 segments saw high growth in 2012 due to new models introduced by automakers in the two segments since the end of 2011. The new models launched included the upgraded Toyota Avanza, Daihatsu Xenia, Honda CR-V and all new models such as Mitsubishi Outlander, Suzuki Ertiga, Nissan Evalia, Chevrolet Spin and Honda Brio.
Mr. Vaidya noted that major automakers in Indonesia are seeing growth in their 2012 sales as total market demand is healthy.
"Toyota remains as the market leader with market share per centage about 36%, followed by Daihatsu at about 15% and gained back its share in the market with the highest increase, thanks to the sales boost from the launched of upgraded Avanza/Xenia at the end of 2011. The sedan segment and hatchback model Yaris also contributed to Toyota's sales in 2012," Mr. Vaidya said.
Suzuki has a market share of 11.3 per cent in 2012 with a 1.1 per centage points growth due to the high sales of its new MPV model Ertiga.
Mr. Vaidya explained that Honda regained part of its market share at 6.2 per cent in 2012 due to the recovery of parts and CBU supply from Thailand and launch of the new CR-V and Brio.
Meanwhile, Mitsubishi saw its market share declined to 13.3 per cent in 2012 from 15 per cent in 2011 as switched its focus from the commercial vehicle segment to passenger cars segment. It also did not have any significant new product launched in 2012.
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